海南芒果寒害保险合同费率厘定与修正研究

利用海南岛1990—2010年的芒果产量数据和1961—2010年的气象数据,计算了芒果的寒害减产历史序列,应用极值理论构建了产量风险分布模型,依此对各市(县)纯保险费率进行了厘定。并根据寒害的气象风险与产量风险区划成果,通过聚类分析得到区域风险系数,对纯保险费率进行修正,确定了不同免赔额下海南各市(县)芒果寒害保险的纯保险费率。结果表明:不同免赔额下白沙、琼中、五指山和澄迈的纯保险费率最高,说明其寒害风险最高,儋州、临高、屯昌的纯保险费率次之,风险也较高,这与气象指标统计的寒害风险基本一致,说明中部和西北部的芒果种植受寒害影响较大,适合采用高免赔额的费率标准。本研究中纯保险费率是根据气象资料计算而得的,避免了因采用产量资料出现资料短而不稳定的问题,可以有效的防止逆向选择和道德风险,有利于其他热带水果气象指数保险产品设计的借鉴,并使更多的农户参与到保险中来。     

Management strategies for forage rape (Brassica napus L. cv Goliath): Impact on dry-matter yield,plant reserves,morphology and nutritive value

Limited information is available on the grazing management principles of forage rape (Brassica napus L.), particularly in relation to grazing height and intensity and the impact of these on dry-matter (DM) yield and nutritive value. A glasshouse study was undertaken to investigate the effect of three defoliation heights (plant height at harvest; DH: 40, 70 and 90 cm; L, M and H DH respectively) and three defoliation intensities (height at which plants were cut; DI: 5, 20 and 35 cm of residual height; H, M and L DI respectively) on forage rape (cv Goliath) yield and nutritive value at two harvests (harvest 1, H1 and harvest 2, H2), and the impact of nitrogen (N) and water soluble carbohydrate (WSC) reserves on regrowth. Increasing DH from L to H increased estimated total DM yield (H1 plus H2) from 0.5 to 4.6 t DM/ha but DI did not affect yield. Dry-matter yield was optimized at 90 cm DH, but greater nutritive value was achieved by harvesting at lower levels of DH. Despite high in vitro DM digestibility (IVDMD; 852–889 g/kg), harvesting at 90 cm DH could not meet the protein requirement of lactating dairy cows and harvesting at lower levels risks nitrate poisoning. Our results indicate the optimum DH may be between 70 and 90 cm DH, and 20 and 35 cm DI, which requires further studies.     

The evaluation of the synergetic degree of ecology economy society system of China forestry during the last decade

Ecological ravages, environmental pollution, and the developmental problems of regional ecology, economy, and society are not geographical restrictions. The synergistic development of the ecology-economy-society system in forestry was quantitatively assessed by system theory and synergistic dynamic models, illustration of the metering principle and corresponding theory, assessing and quantizing synergistic development status of ecology-economy-society system, and the orderliness of the subsystem of the last decade. The orderliness of the ecology and ecological subsystems developed unstably with an increasing trend. The eco-environment construction and eco-conservation achievement of forestry in China are effective and need to be maintained. The industry structure should be improved to promote the growth of the forestry economy. The society subsystem development is increasing but is not at a high level, which indicates that the public demand to ecological service was not satisfied. The theoretical analysis and numerical examples show that the development of the forestry system has a good development state. The synergy changes of forestry system in the 0 to 0.951 range, which is in the intermediate degree of synergy during this period. It still needs much improvement on efficiency of synergy. The orderliness and the relationship among the subsystems of forestry should be improved in future.     

广谱植物内生真菌枫香拟茎点霉生态功能的研究进展

旨在证明枫香拟茎点霉(Phomopsis liquidambari)有潜力成为广谱内生菌的模式菌株之一,有利于促进内生真菌与宿主植物之间的研究更加系统化、完整化。本研究综述了一株广谱植物内生真菌P.liquidambari在改善土壤化学特性,修复受污染的土壤,优化农业生态,提高农作物产量方面的作用。并从真菌定殖情况、植物生理响应和土壤环境优化三个方面,将该菌株与当前研究较多的印度梨形孢(Piriformospora indica)进行比较,并展望了P.liquidambari的研究前景。     

穗期玉米昼夜生理状态规律的遥感综合探测研究

针对QY、PRI、NDVI、水势分别从不同的方面反映玉米的生理状况,以甜糯二号玉米作为材料,通过田间试验测量玉米昼夜4个参数值,研究了QY、PRI、NDVI、水势4个参数的昼夜变化,并且分析它们之间的相关性。结果表明,QY、水势、PRI三者具有很强的相关性,并且能建立回归模型表示它们之间的联系。     

浙西南山区巨峰葡萄平棚避雨栽培病害发生及防治

总结浙西南山区巨峰葡萄平棚避雨栽培主要病害的发生规律,并提出防治措施。     

Effect of Different Concentrate-roughage Ratios on Rumen Degradability of Cassava Stems and Leaves Total Mixed Ration in Goat

The rumen degradations of TMR were studied in this experiment,in which cassava stems and leaves were used as roughage and formulated with concentrate in different proportions.The purpose of this study was to formulate the available TMR for finishing goat,and provide a theoretical basis for the applications of cassava stems and leaves in goat production.Six Hainan Black goats with permanent rumen fistulas were selected,the rumen degradabilities of DM,CP,NDF and ADF of TMR with 6 different concentrate to forage ratio（2:8,3:7,4:6,5:5,6:4 and 7:3）were tested using nylon bag method.The results showed that,the DM effective degradabilities at the ratio of 4:6,5:5,6:4,7:3 were significantly higher than that of 2:8 and 3:7（P<0.05).CP effective degradabilities at the ratio of 2:8,3:7,4:6 were significantly higher than that of 5:5,6:4 and 7:3（P<0.05).The NDF effective degradation at the ratio of 5:5 was significantly higher than that in the other groups（P<0.05).The ADF degradation at the ratio of 3:7 was significantly higher than that of 4:6,5:5, 6:4 and 7:3（P<0.05).The results indicated that,the nutrient degradation in rumen were higher when the concentrate to forage（cassava stems and leaves）ratio in TMR were 3:7,4:6 and 5:5,and the recommended ratio range were 4:6 to 5:5 in production practice.     

基于纵向传导的蔬菜批零价格关系研究——以北京市果类蔬菜为例

从蔬菜产业的纵向看,批发和零售是两个重要环节,蔬菜批发价格和零售价格的走势以及它们之间的关系是各界关注的焦点。本文以北京市场为例,以番茄和黄瓜两种果类蔬菜的按日批零价格为对象,运用有限分布滞后模型和误差修正模型进行实证分析,研究蔬菜批零价格间的传导关系,并在此基础上揭示蔬菜批发价格在蔬菜价格形成中的作用。研究发现:蔬菜批零价格走势基本一致,相关系数很高;批零价格间存在批发价格向零售价格单向传导的因果关系;批零价格的传导是顺畅的,但不同种蔬菜传导的时间效应有所不同;批发价格在蔬菜价格形成中占据主导作用,当蔬菜价格受到冲击时,若零售价格过高则其会向着批发价格下调,若批发价格过高则零售价格会随之走高。     

内毒素对大鼠小肠黏膜组织的影响及多价阳离子A的保护效应

旨在揭示大肠埃希菌内毒素(ET)对大鼠小肠黏膜的结构、绒毛长度、上皮内淋巴细胞(IEL)的数量和分布的影响,并探讨多价阳离子A(CA)对上述指标的保护效应。选用72只140g~150g SPF级SD大鼠随机分为3组,即对照组、ET组和CA保护组,经相应处理后分别在3、4、8、12h采集十二指肠、空肠组织作为检测样本,制备病理组织切片,HE染色并利用图像分析系统进行分析。ET组十二指肠和空肠绒毛长度在3、4、8、12h均显著低于对照组和CA保护组(P0.01),ET组十二指肠、空肠IEL数量在3、4、8、12h均显著低于对照组(P0.01);CA保护组十二指肠和空肠IEL数量在4、8、12h均显著高于ET组(P0.01)。结果显示,ET在不同程度上能够破坏小肠黏膜的正常组织结构,降低小肠绒毛长度,减少IEL的数量,从而影响小肠正常的吸收和免疫功能,而CA则能明显降低ET所导致的毒性作用,发挥其保护效应。     

生态养老背景下木结构建筑发展探析

木结构建筑具有自然舒适、绿色环保、节能保温以及防震减灾等特点,在生态养老领域具有很好的发展前景。介绍了木结构建筑概况,分析了老年人的生态养老需求,从适老化、绿色智能和文旅康养等方面,对木结构老年建筑发展进行展望与讨论,提出了完善相关标准规范和政策建议,为促进我国木结构老年建筑发展提供参考。